The Science of Preparing for an Uncertain Future
We've all heard the saying "hindsight is 20/20"—that perfect clarity about past events only comes after they've occurred. But what if we could achieve similar clarity about the future before it happens?
As 2020 approached, a small but growing field of professionals was doing exactly that. While no one could have predicted the exact trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, systematic foresight methodologies were already being employed by organizations worldwide to prepare for uncertain futures. This is the story of how strategic foresight helps governments, businesses, and communities navigate volatile times by exploring multiple possible futures rather than trying to make precise predictions.
The practice of foresight represents a fundamental shift from traditional forecasting. Instead of asking "what will happen?", foresight practitioners ask "what might happen, and how can we prepare?" This approach doesn't seek to eliminate uncertainty but to build resilience within it.
When the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO) needed to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, they didn't rely on crystal balls—they implemented rigorous foresight methodologies that enabled them to anticipate challenges and opportunities beyond the immediate emergency 6 . In a world increasingly described as VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), foresight offers a systematic way to think about the future to inform better decisions today 1 .
At its core, foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform decision-making today 1 . This deceptively simple definition encompasses a rich discipline with specific principles and practices. Unlike forecasting, which typically extrapolates from past data to predict likely outcomes, foresight investigates drivers of change to explore multiple possible futures—usually looking five years or more ahead 1 .
Foresight intentionally considers multiple possible futures rather than assuming a single outcome.
A skill that allows people to better understand the role the future plays in what they see and do.
Exploring possible futures to identify elements that reduce the risk of being completely surprised.
Foresight acknowledges that the future isn't predetermined but something that emerges from countless interactions and decisions. Rather than seeking to predict the future—an impossible task—foresight helps us prepare for any future that may arise and sparks collective creativity 1 . This approach is particularly valuable when dealing with complex systems where linear thinking falls short.
Foresight isn't a single methodology but rather a portfolio of approaches that can be combined depending on the context and questions being explored.
These are rich narratives about alternative ways the external environment might develop. Scenarios aren't predictions but rather coherent stories that explore how different drivers might interact. They help organizations stress-test strategies against different possible futures 1 .
This involves systematically tracking early signals of change in a specific environment. By monitoring weak signals and emerging trends, organizations can detect shifts earlier than their competitors 1 .
| Method | Primary Purpose | Time Horizon | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario Planning | Explore alternative futures | Medium to long-term (5-50 years) | Set of narrative scenarios |
| Delphi Method | Gather expert opinion | Short to long-term | Prioritized issues with expert consensus |
| Horizon Scanning | Detect early signals of change | Long-term (10+ years) | Database of trends and weak signals |
| Backcasting | Plan steps to achieve preferred future | Medium-term | Strategic roadmap with milestones |
| Causal Layered Analysis | Explore deeper perspectives | Any time horizon | Layered analysis of issue at different depths |
When COVID-19 emerged, the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO) faced an unprecedented challenge: how to support countries experiencing the pandemic in dramatically different ways. Traditional emergency response systems focused on immediate "firefighting," but WPRO recognized that the pandemic would have longer-term consequences across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political landscapes 6 .
In early 2020, WPRO established four specialized think tanks focusing on equity, non-pharmaceutical interventions, non-COVID mortality, and ethics. These teams brought together 34 WPRO staff and external academics who implemented a six-step foresight process over several weeks 6 :
The teams began by mapping existing trends that could influence the pandemic's trajectory.
They explored primary, secondary, and tertiary consequences of different developments.
Participants examined how different trends and events might interact.
The teams created rich, detailed narratives for how the pandemic might evolve.
Using desirable futures as reference points, they worked backward to identify strategic actions.
Finally, they considered what their findings meant for WHO at different organizational levels.
The process was conducted entirely remotely using digital collaboration platforms, with facilitation provided by futures experts. An 18-month horizon was chosen based on vaccine development forecasts 6 .
The think tanks produced twelve dimensions of change that could emerge from the pandemic, covering society and people, health, politics and governments, and technology 6 . These included shifts in public trust, health system design, economic recovery approaches, and technological adoption patterns.
Breakdown of social order, overwhelmed systems
Potential Impact: High mortality, economic collapse
Societal slowdown, environmental recovery
Potential Impact: Short-term disruption, long-term sustainability
Global cooperation, health system strengthening
Potential Impact: Improved preparedness, equitable access
Authoritarian control, restricted freedoms
Potential Impact: Security over privacy, limited personal freedoms
Perhaps the most valuable outcome was the cross-departmental engagement that occurred during the process. As one reflection noted, "The think tanks served as a forum to engage across departments and with external experts in a way that does not occur in routine operations" 6 . This breaking down of silos represented a significant organizational benefit beyond the specific strategic insights generated.
While foresight isn't a laboratory science with physical reagents, it does employ specific conceptual frameworks that serve as essential tools for structuring thinking about the future.
This framework helps organizations understand how strategic issues change over time by mapping three concurrent horizons: Horizon 1 (the current system), Horizon 2 (a transitional space where new approaches emerge), and Horizon 3 (a future system that represents transformation) 1 .
This model helps avoid the trap of focusing only on short-term pressures while neglecting longer-term possibilities.
This visual model organizes different types of potential futures from probable (what is likely to happen) to plausible (what could happen) to possible (what might happen under rare circumstances) to preferred (what we want to happen) 1 .
This helps distinguish between different levels of possibility.
This categorization system ensures comprehensive scanning by examining trends across Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values dimensions 6 .
This systematic approach prevents blindspots in environmental analysis.
This method explores issues at multiple levels: the litany (surface events), systemic causes (social and technical systems), worldview (cultural and ideological perspectives), and myth/metaphor (deep stories and unconscious narratives) 1 .
This provides depth beyond conventional analysis.
| Pillar | Key Questions | Sample Methods | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mapping | What are past and present trends? | STEEPV, Horizon Scanning | Trend analysis, system map |
| Anticipating | What might shape the future? | Futures Wheel, Trend Impact Analysis | List of critical uncertainties |
| Timing | How might changes unfold? | Three Horizons, S-Curves | Phasing of developments |
| Deepening | Why do we see the future as we do? | Causal Layered Analysis | Deeper understanding of perspectives |
| Creating Alternatives | What different futures might emerge? | Scenarios, Visioning | Set of alternative scenarios |
| Transforming | How do we create preferred futures? | Backcasting, Pathway Development | Strategic roadmap, action plan |
Professional futurists also employ a structured process known as the Six Pillars approach, which includes mapping the present and past, anticipating future disruptions, identifying deeper causal layers, creating scenarios, transforming visions into action, and measuring outcomes 8 .
The quest for "20/20 foresight" represents more than just a clever play on words—it reflects a fundamental human desire to navigate uncertainty with greater confidence.
While perfect clarity about the future remains impossible, systematic foresight offers something potentially more valuable: the ability to engage with uncertainty constructively, to build resilience against unexpected shocks, and to actively shape preferable outcomes.
Recent research tracking scientific publications on foresight reveals that the practice is becoming more data-driven, integrating novel computer-based approaches with traditional qualitative methods 7 .
We're moving toward what some experts call "Foresight-on-site," where analysis happens in real-time with continuous updates rather than through discrete projects 7 .
As we reflect on the predictions made for 2020, what stands out isn't the accuracy of specific forecasts but the value of the process itself. Organizations that had built foresight capacities were better positioned to navigate the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, not because they predicted it, but because they had developed adaptive mindsets and practices 6 . In a world of increasing complexity and change, foresight may well be the most critical literacy we can develop—not just for experts, but for anyone looking to thrive in uncertain times.
The future might not be ours to see, but with systematic foresight, it is increasingly ours to shape.